The Growing Republican Headache

It is pretty much agreed that President Barack Obama has the world’s toughest job. But Virginia Congressman Eric Cantor is a close second. Cantor is the House Republican whip charged with finding a message for his shrunken party.

Kevin Phillips wrote a book back in 1969-- The Emerging Republican Majority--predicting conservative domination of national elections for years to come. President Nixon helped make it come true with his whites-oriented “southern strategy” that turned Dixie into a solid Republican base. Next came wedge issues that had gun lovers and religious fundamentalists flocking to the GOP.

Cantor is a sharp guy. He knows, as did millions around the globe watching the inauguration of a black President, this is a far different America from 1969. The message of God-Guns-Gays that worked so well for Reagan, Bush and Bush now resonates among Democrats only in West Virginia and Alaska.

Over the years the electorate has changed dramatically. Rising numbers of Latinos, Asians, African Americans and gays, all strongly liberal, join young people of all races who follow campaigns on the Internet and vote overwhelmingly Democratic.

In 2002, John Judis and Ruy Teixeira wrote The Emerging Democratic Majority, another book for Eric Cantor to review before grabbing the Excedrin. They described the deep-rooted demographic shifts that are changing American politics. Judis and Teixeira wrote that America’s change from rural life to urban life favors Democrats.

Adding to Cantor’s grief is the observation from Salon.com that educated white-collar professionals have grown steadily and vote Democratic: “They are the new face of America, and for them the GOP’s culture war is both irrelevant and offensive.”

And just before last November’s election, The Atlantic wrote that Democrats were riding “an incredibly diverse coalition, multiracial, well-educated but not especially high-income.” The magazine added: “The good news for Democrats is that their swatches of the American patchwork, although they fit together less well than do the GOP’s, are mostly the swatches that are growing.”

So Cantor and Republicans have a problem. Not only is their base dwindling, but their most popular candidate—Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin—could be poster woman for their discredited God-Guns-Gays style of campaigning.

When Republicans had a similar problem during the FDR years they turned to Madison Avenue’s ad agencies for help. I think that’s how campaign jingles came about. Cantor could look it up.